Since April and May, we’ve shared early signals that federal funding was contracting across key sectors. Those signals are now confirmed through an in-depth analysis of the DOGE grants cut list.
The DOGE grant cut list of more than 16,000 rows has given us a real-time and comprehensive list of where and how those cuts are landing. We’ve analyzed the data and built what we believe is one of the most focused impact maps in the country: nonprofits with large federal dependencies, no private funding diversification, and the internal structure to respond if given a viable path.
Here’s what we’re seeing:
- About 70% of the hardest-hit recipients were nonprofits—not public agencies.
- Roughly 28% were universities or public schools.
- Many of these nonprofits have never had to diversify; multi-year, generous federal grants made alternatives unnecessary. There was no prior indication federal funding might end.
What We’re Doing With It
We’re feeding this list into our digital marketing tracks, targeted by sector, geography, cut severity, and alignment.
This effort has also pushed our internal structure forward. We’ve assigned one of our team to find and translate raw grant data, partially based on the DOGE impact into segmented lists for our campaign leads.
What It Means for Grant Writers
This shift isn’t just a funding realignment; it will drive grant researchers and writers to higher levels of performance.
What’s ahead is a more competitive landscape: many fewer government funders, more applicants to private grant foundations, and a shift from renewal writing to discovery and then first-contact acquisition. New grant applicants are competing against established relationships with recurring grant programs.
The best grant professionals will be those who bring in new money and relationships, but more strategically, evolve nonprofits to multiple sources of revenue through much higher levels of prior donor analytics, and working to shift prior donors from lump sum contributions to monthly recurring support.
Why Share This
This post isn’t a pitch for our incredible team. Most of our customers come through referrals.
But if you’re navigating this shift, it helps to know what others are seeing. No single grant consultancy can cover scope of this change. The federal funding floor isn’t falling out all at once. It’s pulling back, selectively, agency by agency. It’s very much in motion, and in its earliest phase. Some federal grants and their agencies will remain, but as of this writing, it’s not known which ones will continue long term. The perspective is widespread that all federal grants will be terminated. Perception, even if not true, is a powerful driver of change.
If you want to compare notes, we’re easy to find and would love to discuss.